White Paper  

The current housing crisis is caused by a lack of quality relevant local information and a lack of due diligence on loans and loan packages (MBS). The loan approval process is only based upon the present, just a snap shot. There is no consolidation of local meaningful data to mitigate risk. To conduct meaningful real estate due diligence, you need to know how one block compares to another block and the surrounding blocks. You need to know its relative strength. Home Value Predictor is the only service currently available on the market that can denote changes by the block. No other index or service can do that. Home Value Predictor is the premier map-based tool that give buyers, seller’s investors and lenders of real estate not only a more than a dozen metrics like job growth, vacancy rates and the like, but actually predicts housing prices twelve to twenty four months into the future.

 

Product Service Overview

 

Home Value Predictor forecasts ALL census block groups, delivered in real time. Local reports show what affects future price movements. Real-time dynamic maps, illustrate relative strengths. Each of them has statistical confidence numbers. Home Value Predictor offers dynamic color-coded maps with reports, allowing for seamless communication of critical current local real estate information.

 

Special Expertise/Technology:

 

After four years of development the Home Value Predictor team of PhD statisticians, created a proprietary algorithm to apply Spatial Temporal Analysis to hundreds of variables in every county, city, ZIP code and census block area in the U.S. Home Value Predictor has compiled and added hundreds of variables in profile that make up our map renderings, block comparisons, and growth to risk comparisons. The data profiled and used is hundreds of times more accurate and powerful in indicating monetary gain and risk to very specific block areas. We can rely on them to predict coming events that directly affect real estate profits. Two pending patents, are at the core of our analytics and were developed specifically to ensure default free loans &/or equity loss.

Up until now until very recently, there has been a single source that has achieved industry wide acceptance as the standard of Home Price Indices. This index was developed to measure the residential housing market as well as specifically track changes in the value of the residential real estate market. For the last several decades this index model has evolved as the recognized authority and has become the credible source for the collection of data; editing as well as presenting this data for individual, corporate and public use. These comparison models have been based on national growth, migration, and other economic indicators.
Only until recently, were more specific regional and local profiles/filters adopted by the leading index and used as indicators. These latest indices additions account for general data in the top 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions. Industry known, as the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, they are calculated monthly and published with a two-month lag. New index levels are not released until the last Tuesday of every month.

Home Value Predictor has changed the measurement of the Real Estate investment landscape forever. Compared, national trends and forecasts citing upward or downward market turns, historically have not had much relevance, matched to what is occurring in specific metropolitan areas. This miss-match occurs because of obvious micro-economic, geographic, quality of life value differentiation, income levels, trade market patterns, localized industries, weather patterns and many other contributing factors. The same is precisely true of the local markets by block within the Metro markets. No other industry index or service can denote changes by the block a suite of tools as accurate as Home Value Predictor does not exist, in the industry. Current industry services are inaccurate by comparison to Home Value Predictor by as much as 10%. There is no industry service, data suite or guide that can predict future real estate values.

 

Home Value Predictor can predict accurately twelve months by the block or greater, twenty four  months by the block or greater and more. Prediction of the value or risk of Real Estate property is not found in any other demographic and census based index service.

 

For example, a trend spotter percentage plotted from a local Metro spreadsheet offered by Case-Shiller (from its top 20 metro markets) may show a countywide downturn of overall 3.5% property values. However, when compared to Home Value Predictor‘s Block analysis in the same county, (with Home Value Predictor’s added profiles and trends drilled down to the exact block address reveals a 2.78% positive change and predicts with alerts a profit for this localized investment. This is something that NO OTHER industry source can provide, or should claim. Additionally, the difference between the 3.5% negative county prediction vs. the 2.78% positive profit profile, amounts to a major gap in the real market place of 6.25%. Furthermore, all other indices have error rates from 2-5% or even greater, whereas Home Value Predictor’s accuracy is 2.065%. Taking the smallest industry standard error margin of just 2% and comparing Home Value Predictor predictions to Case-Shiller trends an overall market error of 8.25% has been created. This wide margin of error is exactly what just happened from the market wide fallout, derived from the current Sub-Prime mortgage meltdown. No Index, brokerage firm, lending firm, or banking/financial institution, allowed for this margin of error. Home Value Predictor is, inherently reliable and error free, delivering highly accurate newer data in real time that allow for smarter best practice decisions. One more notable difference is that the top 20 Metro markets provided currently by Case-Shiller address’s only 35% of the nation, by contrast Home Value Predictor provides local block profit and loss predictions for the entire nation that are relevant, and with pin-point accuracy. Home Value Predictor, also offers alerts with either pre-set or profiled confidence levels. Each category of Confidence rating has twenty progressive levels.

 

The larger the numbers of highest ratings act to verify the exact windows with which to buy, hold, sell, or finance. Home Value Predictor also delivers more value for less. Home Value Predictor is an extremely user-friendly service; with easy to read reports and color coded maps, drawn from viewer position on the fly, and maintains easy access full customer support. Home Value Predictor also has newly incorporated data, imputed and up-dated on a daily, weekly and monthly basis.  Home Value Predictor is also priced competitively below any other industry leader, yet delivers results based on more accurate relevant information, with technology befitting 21st century investors. Any other set of indicators currently in use are outdated, inaccurate, over-priced and have relatively no bearing on making vital investment decisions that are smart and also profitable Home Value Predictor was founded in 2004 as the premier service that benefits buyers, seller’s investors and lenders of real estate. After four years of development the Home Value Predictor team of PhD statisticians, created a proprietary algorithm to apply Spatial Temporal Analysis to hundreds of variables in every county, city, ZIP code and census block area in America. The result: a map-based tool that not only gives you more than a dozen metrics like job growth, vacancy rates and the like, but actually predicts housing prices six and twelve months into the future. We offer an innovative and easy experience for buyers and sellers, by their own profile, to connect, compare and choose a course of action with the most complete, competitive and accurate intelligence offered by any industry source. We provide the only patented tool that actually forecasts, which allows users to make decisions with a high degree of confidence . Home Value Predictor is quickly earning its place as the number one choice, as the only innovative Real Estate investor and lender tool that delivers. Every investor and lender should be asking the question, what if we were able to reduce our risks by 10, 20 or 30%, perhaps a stop loss of a billion dollars loss prevented. Conversely, the accuracy of trend prediction and confidence levels gives a diligent Home Value Predictor user over 98% accuracy and the changes from one of risk reduction, to an unprecedented blueprint for confidence in future market profits, backed by predictive growth indicators, and insured by high confidence levels

 

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