Our Accuracy
The Home Value Predictor forecasting system tested hundreds of variables to find the ones that best predicted movement in median home values. For three years, Home Value Predictor has back tested the system in order to improve the results and improve the Confidence Levels and Accuracy. Typically it takes four years of monthly/quarterly Block Group data, to develop a 24 months Block Group forecast with Confidence Levels.
A comparison of past predictions against true values over the last 14 months has resulted in an assignment of confidence numbers to Home Value Predictor’s forecasts. The confidence numbers range from 1 to 20 (poorest to best). A table of confidence numbers versus error in the prediction follows:
confidence number |
cumulative population |
typical percent error with zero error on national forecast |
|
20 |
1.76 |
9 |
0.63 |
19 |
2.44 |
17 |
1.31 |
18 |
2.46 |
21 |
1.33 |
17 |
2.5 |
24 |
1.36 |
16 |
2.5 |
27 |
1.37 |
15 |
2.6 |
29 |
1.46 |
14 |
2.65 |
32 |
1.53 |
13 |
2.78 |
35 |
1.64 |
12 |
2.98 |
38 |
1.79 |
11 |
3.26 |
41 |
2.11 |
10 |
3.46 |
44 |
2.31 |
9 |
3.82 |
47 |
2.49 |
8 |
4.07 |
51 |
2.62 |
7 |
4.22 |
57 |
2.85 |
6 |
4.46 |
62 |
2.99 |
5 |
4.65 |
67 |
3.12 |
4 |
4.78 |
73 |
3.34 |
3 |
4.82 |
80 |
3.51 |
2 |
5.12 |
91 |
3.69 |
1 |
5.68 |
100 |
3.98 |
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